2021, Issue 4 (52). Abstracts
T.S. Novikova, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS; Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
A.A. Tsyplakov, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS; Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
Social policy development based on a combination of agent-oriented and inter-industrial approaches
The article proposes methodological approach for assessing the consequences of state social policy based on an extended agent-based spatial model with a detailed representation of the reaction of agents to changes in social transfers and taxation as the instruments of government policy. Optimization of territorial social policy is ensured by maximizing the iso-elastic function of social welfare (FSW), based on the individual utility functions of households and taking into account the degree of rejection of social inequality. Structural changes resulting from public policy are analyzed by aggregating the decisions of microeconomic agents and calculating the inputoutput balance table, including through a visual representation in the fourth quadrant of redistribution processes when transfers and taxes change. The results of experimental calculations show that at each level of the coefficient of rejection of inequality for both transfers and taxes, local maxima arise that correspond to the optimal levels of transfers and taxes and form monotonically decreasing iso-optimal curves depending on an increase in either the share of transfers or the level of taxation. The proposed approach to the formalization of ideas about the ratio of efficiency and fairness in the construction of FSW provides an opportunity to choose optimal solutions to justify an agent-based social policy.
Key words: social policy, inequality, input-output balance table, agent-based modeling, social welfare function, social transfers
JEL classification: C33, C53, D58
M.Ye. Mamonov, Institute for International Studies (IIS), MGIMO-University, Moscow, Russia; CERGE-EI, Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic
A.A. Pestova, Institute for International Studies (IIS), MGIMO-University, Moscow, Russia; CERGE-EI, Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic
Transmission of monetary policy shocks in small open emerging market economies
In this paper, we compare the transmission of monetary policy shocks using quarterly data for 13 emerging market economies (EMEs) with that in a benchmark advanced open economy, the United Kingdom, in the periods of inflation targeting (from 1990s onward). To estimate the transmission within a given country, we specify a monetary VAR-model and we extend it with a variable reflecting commodities terms of trade. We identify monetary policy shocks using a sign restriction scheme: a restrictive shock is determined as an unexpected rise of policy rate and reduction of inflation (CPI) and money demand (M2). We apply the Bayesian approach to estimating VARs to address the curse of dimensionality. Our results indicate that monetary policy in EMEs is not less efficient comparable to the U.K.: restrictive monetary shocks decrease inflation but also lead to a slowdown of GDP and stock market outflows. Overall, our findings add to the debate on the real effects of monetary policy surprises with a special attention to a large set of EMEs.
Key words: monetary policy shocks, small open economies, emerging market economies, Bayesian VAR-models, sign restrictions
JEL classification: C34, G21, G33
O.A. Guseva, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia
A.N. Stepanova, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia
Startups in Russia: Ownership and performance
During two decades the Russian government has invested heavily in support of high-tech startups. However, considering high level of information opacity of startups, we focus on equity as the primary source of their financing, and on owners as the main source of support for such firms. This paper examines how ownership characteristics affect the performance of high-tech performance of startups in nuclear and space industries. We focus on how different types of owners (founders, state, and venture capital) contribute to performance of startups in nuclear and space industries. Using an unbalanced panel of startups from Skolkovo, the largest Russian innovation cluster, from 2010 to 2016, we found evidence of a negative relationship between a support from government-related organizations and chosen indicators of startup performance. Our findings confirmed the significant impact of private venture capital on startup performance, however the effect is industry-specific. While family equity contributions were not found to have a significant impact on startup performance, we identified a positive relationship between owner or CEO change and future startup performance. We discuss potential interpretations of the findings and provide strategic management insights for startup owners and investors.
Key words: startups; ownership; development institutions; emerging markets
JEL classification: M13, G32, G34, O38
A.I. Nefedova, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
G.L. Volkova, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
E.L. Dyachenko, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
M.N. Kotsemir, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
M. O. Spirina, AplusA, Leon, France
International mobility and publication activity of early-career-researchers: What do statistics, bibliometrics and scientists themselves say?
The article presents the results of a research project on the international mobility of the young Russian scientists. This study is focused on the impact of education or work experience abroad on their future scientific careers, namely their publication activity. The project attempts to consider academic mobility not from the traditional point of view of “brain drain”, but from the perspective of “brain circulation” which sees mobility as a mechanism for the transfer of knowledge and a valuable source of innovation as well as a necessary element of training and development of human resources in science. The participation of the young Russian researchers in international mobility was shown with the help of data from several nationally representative sociological surveys. The original feature of this project consists is combining two different methodological approaches: both objective and subjective assessments were brought together in order to evaluate the impact of international mobility on the future publication activity of young researchers. The case study of one large Russian university was examined: a unique database combining both biographical data (open information from CV and publication activity indicators (data from Scopus)) of employees of this university was collected. In addition, the in-depth interviews were conducted to complement the analysis. According to the study, the involvement of young Russian scientists in international academic mobility over the past years has been low in comparison with other countries participating in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A positive relationship between the international mobility and scientific productivity of Russian scientists was revealed. As was shown, young researchers involved in international mobility not only publish more scientific article on average, but their papers are in fact published in higher ranking journals and are cited more often. Based on the materials of in-depth interviews, the specific mechanisms pushing a young researchers to upgrade their publication activity after or during their academic mobility were identified.
Key words: international mobility of scientists, academic mobility, Russian researchers, young scientists, publication activity
JEL classification: O320, O340
Y.M. Gorlin, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
A.A. Salmina, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
V.Y. Lyashok, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
Empirical pension indicators: Cross-country comparisons and methodology for Russia
The article proposes a system of empirical indicators for Russia, taking into account the analysis of foreign and Russian approaches to assessing the adequacy of the level of pension provision. One group of the indicators, designed for crosscountry comparisons, is based on the methodology of the European Commission. The results of calculations of the proposed indicators on Russian data are presented, which made it possible to compare the level of pensions in Russia and European Union countries. The article defines the limitations of indicators for cross-country comparisons in terms of assessing the level of pension payments within the Russian system of compulsory pension insurance. For more adequate assessment of the adequacy of payments, the second group of indicators was developed that take into account the particularities of the Russian pension system. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach to the assessment of empirical indicators is that they are focused primarily on assessing the adequacy of the actual pension payments in terms of fulfilling the functions assigned to them - protection from poverty, compensation (replacement) of wages and ensuring the balance of income. The authors propose to evaluate these indicators not only on the data of population surveys, as is most common in foreign practice, but also on the administrative data of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.
Key words: pension, pension system, pension indicators, pension adequacy, replacement rate
JEL classification: H55, H75, J32
D.A. Izotov, Economic Research Institute FEB RAS, Khabarovsk, Russia
Assessment of trade intensity of the Russian Far East: Structural approach
Based on complied statistical data, the scale of trade of the Russia’s Far Eastern regions with the local, macro-regional, domestic and foreign markets is determined. The assessment of the trade intensity in the Russia’s Far Eastern regions was carried out by comparing the results obtained within the framework of log-linear and multiplicative forms of gravity model. The estimation shows a deviation in the trade intensity of the Russia’s Far Eastern regions in favor of the national market as compared to the foreign one. Comparisons of the obtained values showed that the loglinear form, relative to the multiplicative one, significantly overestimated the impact of transportation costs on trade and the contiguity; while at the same time underestimating the values of intensity for trade interaction of Russian Far East with the domestic and foreign markets. The estimates obtained using multiplicative form, suggest a suppression of the comparative intensity of trade of the Russia’s Far Eastern regions with the macro-regional, domestic and foreign markets in dynamics, which can be explained not only by the costs of such interactions but also, by the concentration of trade relations within the Russia’s Far Eastern regions as a result of trade deviation in favor of the local markets.
Key words: trade intensity, structural and institutional variables, transportation costs, gravity model, log-linear form, multiplicative form, local market, national market, foreign market, Asia-Pacific countries, Russian Far East
JEL classification: F14, R1
M.A. Kartseva, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
N.V. Mkrtchyan, HSE University; Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
Y.F. Florinskaya, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; HSE University, Moscow, Russia
Interregional migration and life strategies of the Russian youth
There is lack of studies associating youth migration with a life course in Russia. The article aims to reveal the effect of interregional migration on the life course of young adults (23–34 y.o.) using the data from the nationally representative survey “Person, Family, Society” undertaken by RANEPA in 2020 and data from indepth interviews with young people who moved to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tomsk, Voronezh to get higher education. In the study interregional migrants are defined as people for whom current region of residence differs from the region where they completed secondary education. Our results suggest that migration is a strong factor of personal growth for youth. The comparison of young migrants with non-migrants demonstrates that the interregional migration have a distinct positive effect on career success, income level and promote greater independence and relying on your own resources, solving housing issues among them. The comparison of young migrants and non-migrants demonstrates that the interregional migration has a distinct positive effect on career success, income level and promote greater independence and selfreliance including resolving the housing problems. At the same time migration moderately affects marriage strategies but it contributes to the postponement of childbearing.
Key words: migration, non-migrants, youth, life course, Russia
JEL classification: J11, R23
O.V. Temnaya, Natural monopoly economies Institute, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
D.V. Agafonov, Natural monopoly economies Institute, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
O.O. Mozgovaya, Natural monopoly economies Institute, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
Incentive based regulation of water supply under tariffs limitation
The article browses methods of natural monopolies tariff regulation, applied in Russian Federation and foreign countries for the case of water supply. Three principles for natural monopolies tariff regulation are identified: compromise, compensatory, and Incentive based regulation. One of the Incentive based regulation methods — Yardstick Cost Method — has an advantage of regulated entities labor saving within the tariff protection. The other benefit of the method is the feasibility to grade providers from most to least economic performance and to regulate the economic performance improvement for ineffective providers specifically. Benchmarking of publicly available water supply costs data turned up that the costs of physical resources, amortization and rentals depend on specific conditions of enterprise. Therefore, the water supply costs exclusive of resource cost, amortization and rentals seems to be good as an outcome variable for Yardstick Cost Method. We calculated a formula of approximate functional relationship among three contributors and water supply costs exclusive of resource cost and amortization. The yardstick water supply costs were determined by target performance method applying the formula. Although the formula needs an upgrade, our calculations demonstrate a feasibility of Yardstick Cost Method practice for tariff regulation of Russian water suppliers.
Key words: water supply, natural monopoly, tariff regulation, Incentive based regulation, benchmarking, Yardstick Costs, target performance
JEL classification: L16, L43, L51, L95
A.P. Zaostrovtsev, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, St. Petersburg, Russia
V.V. Matveev, Udmurtiya’s Subsidiary of the Institute of Economics of the Ural’s Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Izhevsk, Russia
Why do voters vote? Theoretical concepts and experimental results
The article examines the evolution of the analysis of voters’ behavior when searching for an answer to the question: Why does the a voter vote? It is shown how the approach to the voter as a rational egoistic investor gave rise to what is commonly called the “voter’s paradox” in political and economic theory. Further search was aimed at explaining this paradox. On the one hand, the concept of an expressive voter appears, who expresses himself through participation in elections, on the other hand, we are talking about an altruistic voter who overcomes egoism. The latest theoretical finding was the explanation of participation in voting by attracting “relational goods” that differ in their qualities from both public and private goods. With this approach, the “voter’s paradox” finds the most consistent solution. And it is in this approach the shift from methodological individualism to institutional individualism is most clearly manifested. The authors of the article highlight this shift as a new trend in explaining the reasons for voting. At the same time, it is argued that the considered conceptual diversity is a reflection of the multidimensional features of human nature, and it is this fact that gives rise to the ambiguity and contradiction of experimental results.
Key words: voter’s paradox, voters’ turnout, rational voter, voter’s egoism, expressive voter, altruist voter, relational goods, methodological and institutional individualism
JEL classification: B25, B41, D72
Yu.V. Simachev, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
T.G. Dolgopyatova, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
A.A. Yakovlev, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
COVID-19 pandemic: The reaction of Russian enterprises and challenges for the post-crisis development
The paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis caused by it on the activities of firms in six sectors of the Russian economy. On the basis of a series of 45 in-depth interviews with the heads of companies and business associations and Russian and international industrial statistics, we show the reaction of enterprises to the crisis and changes in their models of behavior, as well as differences in the forms of communication between government and business in different sectors of Russian economy. Paper shows that key problems faced by firms in 2020 were emerged before the pandemic. During the crisis better performance was demonstrated by firms which before made significant investment in technological development and used digital technologies. Broad application of distant employment model in 2020 led to aggressive HR policy of large firms from Moscow and St.Petersburg in regional markets and increased competition for high-qualified workers. Sectoral associations played important role as representative of collective interests of business in negotiations with authorities. In the conclusion paper discusses the challenges for business and state in the post-crisis development.
Key words: COVID-19 pandemic, economic crisis, anti-crisis measures, industrial regulation
JEL classification: L16, L22, L52, H12
M.N. Glukhova, Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Moscow, Russia
The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on business-state interaction: The business view
The paper reviews the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business climate and the activities of Russian union of industrials and entrepreneurs member companies. On the basis of a survey of 480 companies (both Russian and foreign operating in Russia) the changes in the interaction between business and government, regulation, as well as the risks and opportunities faced by companies in the crisis caused by the spread of a new coronavirus infection are analyzed. High demand from business for systemic, including administrative, support measures rather than financial measures was identified during the pandemic. The specifics of the problems of small businesses were analyzed. The cases of transformation of the best corporate practices into legislative innovations are considered, in particular, using labor legislation as a reference. The paper presents the changes in the approach of particular authorities to providing support and communication with the business community, including both negative and positive practices. It also analyzes the trends of digitalization of interaction between business and state, including the risks of insufficient transition to an electronic interaction format. The problems faced by companies while obtaining support, such as excessive requirements and conditions for providing support, complex reporting system and narrow scope of support recipients, are discussed in the paper.
Key words: COVID-19 pandemic, business climate, regulation, state – business interaction
JEL classification: H12, L16, E32
N.V. Akindinova, Centre of Development Institute, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
D.A. Avdeyeva, Centre of Development Institute, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
N.V. Kondrashov, Centre of Development Institute, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
S.G. Misikhina, Centre of Development Institute, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
S.V. Smirnov, Centre of Development Institute, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic
The article puts forward the thesis that the COVID-19 recession has already passed, which makes it possible to make some other conclusions . It is emphasized that the recession was triggered mainly by temporary restrictions on social contacts and mobility that were “external” to the economy. For Russia, it was aggravated by discords among the OPEC+ members. It is established that the 2020 drop of economic activity turned out to be unprecedentedly deep and unprecedentedly short, in some cases even less than one quarter. Compared to other countries, Russia passed the crisis quite successfully, although the size of the Russian stimulus package was much smaller than in the most developed countries. It is noticed that around the world quite fast recovery began immediately after the mitigation of lockdowns. Relatively recent data allowed us to conclude that by mid–2021, most emerging economies, including Russia, had reached pre-pandemic levels. It is shown that most forecasts agree that in 2021 (and partly in 2022) there will be an accelerated recovery and then the main macroeconomic indicators will return to pre-recession trajectories. At the same time, the changes in consumer preferences and business models triggered by the pandemic can lead to sustainable shifts in the sectoral structure of economies.
Key words: pandemic, COVID-19, recession, stimulus packages, economic growth
JEL classification: E32, E37, E65
V.A. Salnikov, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia
The Russian manufacturing passing the COVID-19 crisis: Macro-level view
The paper provides an express analysis of factors, general results and sectoral features of the COVID-crisis in the Russian industry. Six sectoral clusters are identified by the criteria of similarity of dynamics in production volumes, profits and investment activity. The most important sectoral factors that impacted the trends in the indicators are identified. It is shown that the obvious success observed in the first half of 2021 (namely the general growth in output and profits) is the effect of the deferred demand and the forced switch of demand from services to goods (meanwhile growth in food production, chemistry and wood and paper production continued to be based on net export growth). The factors that emerged by mid-2021 and negatively affected the development of manufacturing in the short term are indicated: the first is the exhausting deferred demand and, the second is the intensifying cost inflation. Meantime there is one supporting growth factor which is oil export recovery.
Key words: manufacturing production, crisis, COVID-19, industrial structure, factors of industrial development
JEL classification: E23, L16, L60, O47
N.A. Volchkova, New Economic School, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia
Russian exporters in the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
We report results of the analysis of the survey data collected from Russian non-raw material exporters in 2020. Survey data allows defining the main channels through which pandemic crisis affected firms’ performance and identifying measures the firms applied to adjust to the new shocks. About three quarters of the surveyed exporters reported negative effects of the crisis on their operations. At the same time, firms’ international exposure on input side did not increase the degree of companies’ vulnerability to the crisis: supply delays were equally likely to occur on the part of domestic and foreign partners. However, there was a statistically significant difference on output side: exporting companies faced growth opportunities in domestic market more often than in foreign destinations, while significant losses happened more often in the foreign markets. These results allow us to conclude that the international exposure of exporting companies in special circumstances of economic crisis, caused by COVID-19 pandemic, created additional risks on the sales side, but not on the input side. This is consistent with the increase in foreign market access costs due to the ban on international travels.
Key words: economic crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, exporters, Russian firms
JEL classification: D22, F14, L20, E32