2014, Issue 4 (24). Abstracts
A.D. Slastnikov, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Moscow, Russia
Investing a Risky Projects under the Government Guarantees on Loans
The paper considers the model which allows to study a mechanism of the government loan guarantees for financing risky projects. The project is risky, i.e. after beginning of financing it can fail with some probability, even before starting functioning. To finance the project it is necessary to obtain funds on credit from a bank. Since a risky project has the probability of a failure to return the credit, the interest rate on a credit can be rather high. In order to reduce the interest rate and to stimulate investor the state guarantees a reimbursement for the bank of a part of the loan (if project fails). We propose a game theory optimization approach to deriving a part of loan reimbursement and a credit policy of bank in financing a risky projects. We prove the existence of Stackelberg equilibrium in the game "government–bank–investor" as well as analyze the obtained results and give its economic interpretation.
Key words: investment project, loan, risk, government guarantees, optimal part of loan reimbursement
JEL classification: G2, D81, C61
A.A. Gnidchenko, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Decomposing Export Growth into Extensive and Intensive Margins with the Emphasis on Comparative Advantages
We provide a pioneer review of the literature on extensive and intensive margins of export growth (through new and old goods, respectively), with a focus on empirical results. We also propose the new method for estimating the role of export diversification in export growth, based on comparative advantages and consistent with methods for estimating potential export growth due to specializing on new products. It is shown that the extensive margin has small impact on export growth (on average, about 20% of export growth is realized through the extensive margin). However, for machinery and chemicals, it contributes much stronger (up to 50% of export growth for countries with high export growth rates).
Key words: export diversification, export potential, extensive margin of exports, intensive margin of exports, comparative advantages
JEL classification: F14
V.S. Nazarov, Financial Research Institute, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (ISAF RANEPA), Moscow, Russia
Y. A. Dormidontova, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (ISAF RANEPA), Moscow, Russia
V. Y. Lyashok, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (ISAF RANEPA), National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, Russia
Analysis of Factors that Influence Workers' Decision to Retire
In recent years the problem of the increased number of pensioners and longer lifespan made motivation of elderly to work longer and retire later a very important objective in Russia. This article presents the results of the analysis of the factors that influence elderly's decision to retiree. For the purpose of this article the retirement was defined as elderly’s decision to exit the labour market. It was determined that the most important factors are state of health, pension entitlement, labour income and marital status. Family factors (age difference between spouses, spouse's employment status and children below age of 15) were determined to be important for women only. Analysis showed that measures of stimulating elderly to work longer should be divided into two categories: 1) destimulation of labour market exit (psychological and legislative); 2) creation of conditions for voluntary extension of working life.
Key words: pension system, retirees, retirement age, elderly employment
JEL classification: J14, J26
M.S. Dedova, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
N.P. Pilnik, National Research University Higher School of Economics, CC RAS, Moscow, Russia
I.G. Pospelov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, CC RAS, Moscow, Russia
Description of Liquidity Needs on the Part of the Russian Banking System Based on the Statistics of Turnovers
The article contains the description of liquidity needs of banks based on statistical balances and turnover subaccounts of Russian banking system. Initial accounts combined into 35 units (which include loans and deposits by macroeconomic agents) are ranked by the rate of turnover. Based on this classification, there is a group of units that characterize the level of liquidity in the banking system. It is shown that the use of information about the turnover of aggregates can significantly extend the class of models, describing the needs of banking system for liquidity. The model is calibrated on monthly data from January 2007 to June 2013. Previously observed regularity, linking volume of loans granted by the banking system and accepted deposits, can be explained by balancing units having turnover rate of the same order.
Key words: Russia's banking system, liquidity, turnover ratio, turnover statistics
JEL classification: G21
Ye.V. Balatsky, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Central Economic Mathematical Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
Syndrome of Reforms’ Arrhythmia in the Higher Education
The author discusses the process of reforms in the Russian higher education. It is shown that the first phase of reforms has been fraught with omissions of regulator and inflation of educational bubble, which gave rise to the budget crisis in the industry, and demanded radical interventions. At the second stage a regulator, trying to cope with the educational bubble, provoked a collapse of the industry, which is fraught with enormous social costs. The examples of distortion of university environment due to administration errors presented.
Key words: higher education, university, reform, education bubble
JEL classification: P210, I280, I230
S.M. Drobyshevsky, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Center of Macroeconomic Research, RANEPA, Moscow, Russia
P.V. Trunin, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Center of Central Banks Studies, RANEPA, Moscow, Russia
The Evolution of Theory and Practice of Monetary Policy as a Result of the Global Economic Crisis
The authors analyze the evolution of global ideas on the optimal monetary policy in the aftermath of the global economic crisis. The authors provide the basic principles of the pre-crisis monetary policy and show that after the crisis, they have not changed fundamentally. It is also argued that some lessons of the global crisis are relevant for the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, as well as some of the classic principles of effective monetary policy.
Key words: monetary policy, Bank of Russia, global economic crisis, inflation, quantitative easing, credit bubble
JEL classification: B22, E52, E58
R.I. Kapeliushnikov, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Human Capital of the Russian Culture: a Statistical Portrait
The paper provides a throughout statistical portrait of human capital the Russian culture using micro-data of the Russian surveys of wages by occupations conducted by Rosstat. Within the cultural activities author discerns three main branches: movies; entertainment (theatres, music etc.); other cultural activity (libraries, museums etc.). The paper examines in details socio-demographic profile of workers employed in the Russian culture and distribution of their wages.
Key words: Russia, culture, human capital, employment, wage, working time
JEL classification: J21, J24, J31, Z11
A.Y. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
This paper describes the situation, which resulted from reforms in those sectors, which produce, distribute, store and consume the patronized goods – scientific products, education, culture and health care – undoubtedly requiring budget funding. In this regard, the paper highlights the key challenges facing economic science, experiencing in the "year of culture" influx of different and not always well-founded recommendations.
Key words: patronized goods, culture, cultural policy, reform, expenditure on culture, investments in culture, cultural activities, externalities
JEL classification: P35, Z11
T.V. Abankina, Center of Public Resource Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Models of State Support for Culture: Theoretical Grounds and Financial Instruments
The article presents a comparative analysis of three main approaches underlying the complex of instruments used in different countries to support arts and culture. The approach viewing culture as a patronized good corresponds to paternalistic model of the support for culture, the model implies making compensation of the objectively defined revenue deficit in the cultural institutions with the aid of budgetary allocations. Viewing culture as a factor of human capital development entails investment model to support cultural sector. The investment model means increasing government investment in the humanitarian field to ensure the transition to the innovation and knowledge-based economy and to sustainable social and economic growth. The third model views culture as the core of creative economy and corresponds to the stimulating support model. The stimulating model implies creating conditions for the creative industries development and creative class attraction, providing international competitiveness of the nations and cities in the global economy. The system of the support measures is analyzed for each of these approaches, using Russian and international practice.
Key words: funding for culture, patronized goods, human capital, creative economy
JEL classification: Z11
M.V. Matetskaya, NRU HSE – St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russia
M.A. Dedova, NRU HSE – St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russia
Actual Approaches to Estimating the Direct and Indirect Effects of Cultural Events
The authors consider the problem of direct and indirect impacts of cultural events on regional development. A wide range of impacts produced when organizing and conducting an event, as well as a significant number of stakeholders, who experience the impacts, compels integrated research approaches. To date, quantitative methods prevail in studying impacts of cultural events, especially economic ones. The paper presents the main advantages and disadvantages of the applied methods. To complement and enhance the degree of studying impacts qualitative research methods are proposed, as well as main problems that complicate the development of a consistent methodological approach to evaluate the cultural events' impacts are identified.
Key words: cultural event, impact, stakeholder, methodology
JEL classification: R1, Z1
E.K. Sokolova, Department of Economics of Art, State Institute of Art Studies, Moscow, Russia
UK Tourism Industry during the Economic Crisis
The UK has a developed tourist infrastructure and is one of the most visited countries in Europe and the world. The most important factor affecting the attendance of the country is its cultural and historical heritage. However, the economic crisis has had its negative impact on the prosperous economics of this industry. Carrying out the reform of the sphere of culture and tourism in the framework of the austerity measures, British government tried to cut funding for public institutions of this sphere, forcing them to increase the share of private funding in their budgets. However, today, before the industry faces challenges related to the need to maintain leadership in the global market. The article deals with the state policy in relation to the tourism industry in the face of increasing competition and of economic downturn.
Key words: tourism industry, finance, economic crisis, culture, state policy
JEL classification: L83
E.A. Khaunina, The State Institute for the Arts Research, Institute of Economics (RAS), Moscow, Russia
From Church Tax to the Institution of Budget Allocation
In this article the evolutionary aspects of institution of budget allocation are presented. In the course of society development church taxes in some countries (Italy, Spain, and others) became voluntary in a form of tax allocation of the certain share of income tax (as a rule, from 0,5 to 2%). Gradually the taxpayers got the opportunity not only to finance churches through their income tax but also to support socio-cultural projects. Not long ago some countries of Central and Eastern Europe (such as Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, etc.) implemented their form of the institution of budget allocation which was called "percentage philanthropy". For most countries this mechanism gave the first opportunity for their taxpayers to directly have a say in the reallocation of centralized funds. It is also considered to be a new type of indirect state support, source of income for NPOs and the way to develop of civil society and public participation in the country.
Key words: church tax, "percentage philantrophy", tax allocation principle, institution of budget allocation, socio-cultural sphere
JEL classification: Z1, Z12, Z18
V.Yu. Muzychuk, Institute of Economics of RAS, Moscow, Russia
Institutes of Public Support for the Arts and Culture: US practice
In the paper the little-known in Russia institutes of public support for the arts and culture actively used in US practice are considered. There are two institutes: the institute of tax credits and its application features in the sphere of cultural heritages conservation at the federal and state levels, as well as the institute of check-off programs, used in several US states to fund various cultural projects and initiatives. Both institutes belong to the sphere of tax administration. In Russia the interest to these institutes of the public support for the arts and culture is due to the search for new opportunities for financial support of cultural activities.
Key words: public support for the arts and culture, tax credits, check-off programs, preservation of cultural heritage, cultural policy, cultural activities
JEL classification: Z11
A.Y. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
From Theory to Practice of Economic Regulation: Ten Theses on the Draft "Law on Culture"
Тhe paper proposes the concept of economic regulation in the sphere of culture, representing combination of four main institutions: institution of differentiated budget performance standards, that characterize the minimum share of spending on culture in the budgets of all levels that enforce to ensure compliance with state obligations to consumers of cultural goods and cultural workers; institution of individual budget allocations ("percentage philanthropy"), which provides a direct participation of citizens in budget allocation, choosing areas of spending of a small part of the state income tax; institution of marked taxes, providing a direct referral into the cultural sphere of revenues from specific taxes and fees; institute of endowment funds, allowing to accumulate revenues from marked taxes and individual budget allocations, in order to derive an increasing current income from the endowment going to support cultural activities in the form of competitive grant funding. The proposed system of economic regulation of cultural activities can be seen as a model for all kinds of patronized goods. With a certain adaptation to the specific conditions of the functioning of science, education and health care, it can be the basis for appropriate institutional reforms.
Key words: culture, patronized goods, budget performance standards, tax protectionism, institution of individual budget allocations, "percentage philanthropy", marked taxes, endowment funds
JEL classification: H53, H71, P35, Z11